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Voters flee Humza Yousaf’s fracturing SNP as poll finds just half of those who backed it in 2019 plan to do so at the next general election with more than a fifth switching to Labour


  • It comes as the First Minister deals with a wave of defections and departures 

Scottish voters are fleeing the fracturing Scottish National Party with little more than half of those who backed the party at the 2019 general election planning to do so next time, according to a new poll. 

Just 55 per cent of the SNP’s backers last time round are still behind Humza Yousaf’s troubled party, with 21 per cent saying they will switch to Labour.

The Scottish Election Survey’s Scoop Monitor also found that the SNP trails Anas Sarwar’s party 38 per cent to 32 per cent in Westminster voting intention.

It comes as the First Minister deals with a wave of defections and departures after just six months in charge in place of Nicola Sturgeon

MSP and former leadership contender Ash Regan fled to to Alba at the weekend, the third third senior figure to leave since Mr Yousaf took over.

He is facing attacks over his handling of attempts to win Scottish independence, while the police continue to investigate claims of fraud before he took over.

Some 43 per cent of those polled said they thought the country was going in the wrong direction, with 23 per cent saying it was on the right course. 

Fraser McMillan, Scottish Election Study researcher, said: ‘The data reinforces the impress we’ve been getting for most of this year that Scottish voters are ready to punish the SNP and the Conservatives, with both parties having spent a long time in power at Holyrood and Westminster respectively. 

Just 55 per cent of the SNP's backers last time round are still behind Humza Yousaf's troubled party, with 21 per cent saying they will switch to Labour.

Just 55 per cent of the SNP’s backers last time round are still behind Humza Yousaf’s troubled party, with 21 per cent saying they will switch to Labour.

The Scottish Election Survey's Scoop Monitor also found that the SNP trails Anas Sarwar's party 38 per cent to 32 per cent in Westminster voting intention.

The Scottish Election Survey’s Scoop Monitor also found that the SNP trails Anas Sarwar’s party 38 per cent to 32 per cent in Westminster voting intention.

It comes as the First Minister deals with a wave of defections and departures after just six months in charge in place of Nicola Sturgeon.

It comes as the First Minister deals with a wave of defections and departures after just six months in charge in place of Nicola Sturgeon.

MSP and former leadership contender Ash Regan fled to to Alba at the weekend, the third third senior figure to leave since Mr Yousaf took over.

MSP and former leadership contender Ash Regan fled to to Alba at the weekend, the third third senior figure to leave since Mr Yousaf took over.

‘Labour are currently attracting voters from all the other major parties, and picking up around 20 per cent of Yes supporters in Westminster vote intention.

‘The SNP’s dominance over the last decade has been built on monopolising pro-indy Scots, but they’re finally seeing some of that support drift away.’

The publication suggests the connection between support for Scottish independence and the SNP is weakening, with 53 per cent of those who indicated they would back a second referendum also supporting the SNP – a significant decline from previous elections when the figures regularly exceeded 80 per cent, according to pollsters.

The poll found nearly 20 per cent of those who voted for Scottish independence in the 2014 referendum intend to back Labour in the general election expected next year.

Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, 48 per cent said they would do so again, while 18 per cent are likely to vote Labour – with Sir Keir Starmer’s party also likely to attract 21 per cent of SNP voters and 38 per cent from the Liberal Democrats.

Meanwhile, the poll suggests 66 per cent of Scots expect Labour to win the next general election, while 12 per cent think the Tories will triumph, and 22 per cent are unsure.

But the SNP holds a slight edge over Labour in voting intentions for Holyrood’s constituency ballot in 2026, with 35 per cent compared to 32 per cent when undecided voters are removed.

The poll also shows that Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar remains marginally most popular among Scots with a mean rating of 4.3, over 4.0 for SNP leader and First Minister Humza Yousaf, while Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross scored 2.7.

UK Labour leader Sir Keir received an average 4.2, over Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s 2.6 score.

The SNP Scottish Government received a minus 20 net rating when respondents assessed their performance since the last election, while the Tory-led UK Government scored minus 68.



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